Flood Prediction Due to Land use Changes in the Keramasan Watershed of Palembang City, Indonesia

Achmad Syarifudin¹, Lindawati², Ferry Dasromi², Yuliantini EP² and Henggar Risa Destania³, ¹Department of Civil Engineering, Universitas Bina Darma, Palembang City, Indonesia, ²Department of Civil and Cumputer Engineering, Baturaja University, Indonesia, ³Department of Civil Engineering, Indo Global Mandiri University, Palembang, Indonesia

ABSTRACT

This study aims to determine the impact of land use changes on flood discharge in the Keramasan watershed and to calculate the flood discharge used the rational method. The data used in this study include rainfall data, land use data and topographic data. Rainfall data used is daily rainfall data recorded at BMKG Kenten Palembang. Daily rainfall is transformed into hourly rainfall intensity using the Mononobe method. The results of this study indicated that the increase in flood discharge due to changes in land use is approximated by the linear trend equation Y = a + b*X1 + c*X2 + d*X3. Variable Y is flood discharge. The variables X1, X2, and X3 are the area of rice fields, the area of agricultural land, and the area of housing. The combination correlation coefficient is 0.969. it’s mean that 96,9 % of variable flood discharge influence of the Variables of rice fields, the area of agriculture land and the housing area. Where the coefficient a, b, c, and d are –350.60, 33.63, -75.00, and 1.006. The partial correlation coefficient, RYX1 is 0.57, RYX2 = 0.57, and RYX3 = 0.57.

KEYWORDS

The land used changes, flood discharge, linear regression, multi regression.